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Wall Street extended its winning streak to eight sessions, buoyed by strong corporate earnings and positive trade deal signals from President Trump regarding India, Japan, South Korea, and China. Major indices, including the Australia 200, rose amid a global risk-on sentiment, supported by a favorable Q1 2025 inflation report from Australia.Key economic indicators showed a widening trade deficit and a drop in job openings, while consumer confidence and GDP contracted. The upcoming week features significant data releases, including the ISM Services PMI and the FOMC interest rate decision, as markets brace for potential rate cuts amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
US consumer inflation expectations have surged for the second consecutive month, raising concerns about potential inflationary pressures. Fed officials face a dilemma: if they lower interest rates in response to rising unemployment, high inflation expectations could exacerbate the situation. While market-based long-term inflation expectations have slightly declined, consumer sentiment suggests a growing belief that inflation may not be effectively controlled.
US stock markets rallied last week, driven by easing concerns over President Trump's tariffs and a more dovish Federal Reserve stance. The US Tech 100 surged 6.43%, while the US 500 rose 4.59%, although it remains 10% below February highs. Key earnings reports and economic data, including the non-farm payrolls, are anticipated this week, with expectations of 135,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate steady at 4.2%.
Equity markets are rebounding as investors anticipate support from both the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration, with the S&P 500 rising 2% and the Nasdaq gaining 2.7%. Expectations for rate cuts have increased following comments from Fed officials, while President Trump's less confrontational trade stance has bolstered sentiment despite ongoing uncertainties. UBS forecasts a significant growth in global tech earnings and highlights the resilience of corporate performance, with around 70% of S&P 500 companies exceeding first-quarter earnings expectations.
Gold prices have temporarily dipped below $3,300 per troy ounce following President Trump's reversal on tariffs and Fed Chair Powell's position. Despite this, demand for gold as a safe haven is expected to persist, especially with potential interest rate cuts on the horizon. Economic data from the US will be closely monitored, as signs of a slowdown could drive gold prices higher.
Oil prices fell as tensions within the Opec+ alliance grew, with Kazakhstan prioritizing national interests over collective production goals. The US stock market showed mixed signals, with the Dow Jones expected to decline amid concerns over tariffs and interest rates, while Alphabet's quarterly report boosted investor confidence. The Nasdaq 100 also retreated slightly after a recent recovery.
President Trump has intensified his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling for immediate interest rate cuts and suggesting Powell's dismissal. While legally complex, such a move could undermine the Fed's credibility and lead to market volatility. As the administration considers future leadership, potential candidates include Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, or outsider Kevin Warsh, amid expectations of sustained higher long-term yields due to inflation concerns.
European markets opened lower amid ongoing market uncertainty, with analysts indicating that the equity drawdown probability has not peaked. Factors contributing to this outlook include a weakening macroeconomic backdrop, declines in key tech stocks, and a risk appetite indicator suggesting no strong buying opportunity has emerged.Investors are closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including the Chicago Business Barometer and U.S. employment reports, while crude oil and gold prices showed slight increases. Asian markets also closed lower, reflecting broader global market trends.
Asian stocks mostly declined amid renewed concerns over potential trade friction with President-elect Donald Trump. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.9% following strong wage growth data, while the Shanghai Composite dropped 0.6% as inflation signals pointed to weak demand. In the U.S., markets were steady, with the S&P 500 recovering slightly after previous losses, as investors awaited key economic reports.
Asian stocks mostly declined as concerns over persistent inflation and interest rates grew following mixed U.S. market performance. The Nikkei 225 fell 1.4% after strong wage growth data, while the S&P 500 rose 0.2% amid hopes for future rate cuts. U.S. markets will be closed for a National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter.
Christopher Wallerstedt
People
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